Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans will meet on the gridiron at Reliant Stadium on Monday in a battle of division rivals.

Oddsmakers currently have the Texans listed as 3-point favorites versus the Jaguars, while the game’s total is sitting at 48.

The Jaguars lost to Minnesota 30-12 as a 2.5-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41).

David Garrard threw for 317 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions for Jacksonville, while Maurice Jones-Drew caught nine passes for 113 yards.

The Texans defeated Cleveland 16-6 as a 3-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (50.5).

Sage Rosenfels passed for 275 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions for Houston, while Andre Johnson caught 10 passes for 116 yards in the win.

Current streak:
Jacksonville has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Jacksonville: 4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS
Houston: 4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS

Jacksonville most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 4-6

Houston most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 1-9

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Jacksonville’s last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Jacksonville’s last 13 games on the road
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Houston’s last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games at home
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville

Next up:
Jacksonville at Chicago, Sunday, December 7
Houston at Green Bay, Sunday, December 7

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BETTING TRENDS
JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Jacksonville’s last 23 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Jacksonville’s last 13 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 6 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston

HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Houston’s last 13 games
Houston is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games at home
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

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INJURIES
JACKSONVILLE
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Brian Iwuh LB Questionable Week 13 (head)
Troy Williamson WR Questionable Week 13 (groin)
David Garrard QB Probable Week 13 (back)
Rashean Mathis CB Probable Week 13 (foot)
Dennis Northcutt WR Probable Week 13 (groin)

HOUSTON
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Matt Schaub QB Questionable Week 13 (knee)
Travis Johnson DT Probable Week 13 (knee)
Jacoby Jones WR Probable Week 13 (illness)
Amobi Okoye DT Probable Week 13 (ankle)
Steve Slaton RB Probable Week 13 (chest)

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Service Plays

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nelly

RATING 2 JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Houston

HOUSTON (-3) Jacksonville (48½) 7:35 PM
The Jaguars had a nightmare start last week with two early fumbles.
Jacksonville moved the ball effectively but could not make up the deficit.
Houston won last week despite scoring just 16 points but the Texans lost
to Jacksonville earlier this season and the Jaguars have actually won
three of the last four road games with two of those wins against playoff
contenders. Houston is 0-3 ATS the last three at home and the defense
can not be trusted, allowing nearly 27 points per game. JAGS BY 7

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DOC

3 Unit Play. #114 Take Over 48 in Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texas

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WILD BILL

Jaguars +3 (5 units)

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Pointwise Phone Plays

2* Jacksonville

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the gold sheet

HOUSTON 31 - Jacksonville 23—Jags only 1-5 vs. spread in trips to
Houston. And Jacksonville is only a shell of its 2007 physically-dominating self,
with its OL interior crippled with injuries and its defense lacking LY’s chemistry
and intimidation. Although Sage Rosenfels (2 more ints. last week) not as reliable
as Matt Schaub, his supporting cast of rookie RB Steve Slaton (774 YR), and
receivers Andre Johnson (81 recs.), Kevin Walter (47) and Owen Daniels (48) is
far better balanced than that of the Jags. Houston “over” 9-2 TY; 13-3 last 16.

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Marc Lawrence playbook

HOUSTON over Jacksonville by 6
On the surface this certainly looks like the right spot to ask the Jaguars to
snap their losing ways. The problem, though, is they are playing rotten
football while the Texans are still fl ying under the radar, having outgained
8 of their last 9 opponents. Houston has also been the breadwinner in this
series, going 7-2 ATS the last 9 games, including 5-1 ATS as a host. Toss in a
measure of revenge from a 30-27 overtime loss earlier this year and it will be
no surprise to us when Jack drops to 2-6 ATS in its last eight Monday night
appearances. Houston, we’ve got no problem with you.

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Brandon Lang
Sunday Analysis on these two winners by 4 p.m. eastern Monday

15 Dime Texans (if your man has 3-1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay 3. Remember, don’t ever get beat by the hook.) -

5 Dime 6-Point Teaser Bonus - Texans with Jags/Texans Over

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Vegas Hotsheet

NFL - Houston -3

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Rocco Spacamuro

50*Jaguars +3

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igz1 sports

Monday Action !!
Sunday Recap: 5-2 NFL (+222) pts : 1-0 NHL (+80) pts : 1-1 CBB (-9) pts

MNF
3* Over 48 (-110) Jacksonville vs Houston

NHL
4* Under 6 (-110) Toronto vs Los Angeles

CBB
4* Idaho +2.5 (-110)

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Larry Ness

15 Star Monday Night Mismatch

Houston Texans

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LPW Forecast
Executive club

5* Kansas

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Teddy Covers
Teddy has dominated the NBA to start the season with a record of 20-10 67%!

Regular Play
Over 212 Miami/Golden State

Service Plays

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Hondos Best Bets

Best Bets 22-14 .. 61.1%
Giants
Pitt

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Spylock

Atlanta
Pittsburgh….3 units each

Baltimore
Giants
Jets…. each 1 unit

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DR BOB

4 Star Selection San Francisco (+6.5) 24 BUFFALO 21*
The 49ers were more competitive against the Cowboys last week than the 22-35 score indicates, as San Francisco averaged 5.9 yards per play while allowing 6.2 yppl. The problem was an inability to cash in on a couple of scoring opportunities early in the game, when the Niners twice settled for field goals after having the ball 1st down and goal from the 4 yard line both times. The 49ers have been out-scored by 5.3 points per game despite out-gaining their opponents 5.5 yppl to 5.4 yppl because of a -13 in turnover margin. However, new quarterback Shaun Hill is much less likely to turn the ball over (4 turnovers in 3 ½ games) than former starter J.T. O’Sullivan was (17 turnovers in 7 ½ games) was and the Niners are a better than average team if they can be even in turnovers. Not only does Hill not turn the ball over, but he also doesn’t take sacks at the rate O’Sullivan did (Hill sacked just 6.5% of pass plays while O’Sullivan was sacked on 12.7% of his pass plays), which enables Hill to keep more drives going. Hill has averaged 7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback, and I rate the Niners’ attack at 0.5 yppl better than average with Hill combining with Frank Gore (4.5 ypr) in a balanced attack. The 49ers’ defense is 0.1 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and the Niners are better on both sides of the ball than a Buffalo squad that is 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl). Buffalo’s defense has been even worse without top DL Aaron Schobel, nickel back Ashton Youboty and more recently star SS Donte Whitner and CB Jabari Greer. Schobel and Youboty have been out since week 7 and Whitner and Greer missed last week’s game and are both listed as questionable this week. The Bills allowed Kansas City to rack up 8.1 yppl last week without those 4 key players and the Bills defense has been 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively since week 7. Buffalo does have an edge in special teams, especially if Niners’ kick and punt return man Allen Rossum does not play (he’s questionable with a sprained ankle), but my math model favors San Francisco by ½ a point in this game even if I assume Rossum will not play. San Franicsco’s problems in the red-zone last week were certainly not an isolated incident, as scoring touchdowns when they get close to the goal line has been a problem all season. My other math model takes scoring efficiency into account and that model favors Buffalo by 3 ½ points – so there is still a lot of line value on the side of the Niners in this game even if they continue to have problems in the red zone (although it’s likely they won’t be as bad as they’ve been in that area). In addition to the line value, Buffalo applies to a negative 29-72-2 ATS letdown situation and a 40-93-1 ATS statistical indicator that plays against favorites that have been struggling defensively (that makes sense). If the true line on this game is Bills by 3 ½ points (that’s a worst case scenario) then San Francisco would have a 58% chance of covering at +6 ½ points without factoring in the positive situations, which give the 49ers a 63% chance of covering when factored in. I’ll take San Francisco in a 4-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 3-Stars from +5 ½ to +4 points (2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3).

2 Star Selection TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 30 New Orleans 19*
New Orleans sure looked unstoppable offensively in Monday Night’s 51-29 win over Green Bay, but what goes up must come down and it’s tough to play at such a high level in consecutive weeks – especially when playing on the road. Drew Brees and company have scored more than 35 points on 3 other occasions in 3 years and the Saints are 0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS in their next game after their offensive outburst while averaging just 19.7 points in those games. The average line on those games was -6 ½ points and the average spread loss was by 16 points. I’m not basing this bet on those 3 games, but I thought I’d start by convincing you that the ease at which the Saints scored last week has no bearing on this game. In general, road teams are just 69-104-6 ATS when not getting more than 4 points against a winning team the week after scoring 35 points or more in a victory, so high scoring wins are usually followed by poor outings when visiting a good team and not getting too many points. The Saints also apply to a 28-75-2 ATS road letdown situation while Tampa Bay applies to a 79-32-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. My math model favors the Buccaneers by 5 ½ points with Reggie Bush expected back for the Saints. I mentioned last week that Bush makes no difference offensively, but he has returned 3 punts for touchdowns this season in just 6 ½ games. If Bush doesn’t play, or doesn’t return punts, then I’d favor the Bucs by even more. Of course, Tampa Bay now has their own special teams weapon in rookie Clifton Smith, who in just 4 games has already returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns. I’ll take Tampa Bay in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less (at -1.15 odds or better).

3 Star Selection Carolina (+3) 25 GREEN BAY 19*
Carolina was whipped 28-45 at Atlanta last week, but the Panthers have played well following their other two losses this season – winning 24-9 at home against the Falcons and beating New Orleans 30-7 – and they qualify in a very strong 40-7 ATS subset of a 70-21-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. The Panthers are also a better team than Green Bay. Carolina’s offense has averaged 5.7 yards per play in 9 games with star WR Steve Smith available to play (he was suspended the first two weeks) and they rate at 0.2 yppl better than average after compensating for their easier than normal opposing defenses faced. Green Bay is just average defensively, as their ability to defend the pass is balanced out by their inability to stop the run (5.0 ypr allowed). Carolina’s edge is even greater when the Packers have the ball, as the Panthers have been 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) while the Packers are only 0.1 yppl better than average on offense (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl). Green Bay does have a 1.3 points advantage in projected turnovers and a 0.7 points edge in special teams, but my math model picks this game even while my other model favors Green Bay by 1 ½ points. Either way, we have value to go along with a very good situation and I’ll take Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better) and for 2-Stars down to +1.

2 Star Selection
WASHINGTON (+3.5) 21 NY Giants 17*
New York is now 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games away from home, but that team trend is not more significant than the negative 27-77-3 ATS general situation that applies to the Giants in this game. Washington, meanwhile, applies to a solid 201-120-6 ATS situation, a 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator and a 78-33-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Washington also has what it takes to stage an upset, as the Redskins have a very good rushing attack, a quarterback that takes care of the ball (just 3 interceptions this season) and a defense that ranks among the best in the NFL – especially with CB Shawn Springs returning last week. Springs looked good last week against the Seahawks, breaking up 2 passes, and his presence makes it very tough on opponents to throw against the Redskins. Washington has allowed just 5.5 yards per pass play this season to a schedule of quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.7 yppl against an average defense and they have been even better defending the pass in the 5 games that Springs has played. In those 5 games (weeks 2, 3, 4, 6, and 12) the Redskins have yielded 5.4 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.1 yppp against an average defense (that includes games against Drew Brees, Tony Romo, and Kurt Warner). Washington also defends the run well (4.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.3 ypr against an average team) and the Redskins are 1.0 yppl better than average defensively, giving them a 0.3 yppl edge over the Giants’ offense (which is 0.7 yppl better than average). The Giants’ defense is only 0.3 yppl better than average for the season, but they had one horrendous game at Cleveland that has skewed their stats and I rate them at 0.6 yppl better than average using a median rating rather than their average rating. Washington is 0.1 yppl better than average offensively thanks to their strong rushing attack, so New York has a 0.5 yppl advantage over the Redskins’ offense – which is just 0.2 yppl more than Washington’s edge over the Giants’ attack. These teams are very close from the line of scrimmage and my math model favors New York by just 1 ½ points. The strong technical analysis favoring Washington is worthy of a 3-Star Best Bet, but New York’s recent history away from home will cause me to downgrade this game. I’ll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better)

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Hilton Contest

Consensus Selections of All 349 Contestants

Tennessee (42) - 11 vs. DETROIT (25)
DALLAS (42) - 12 1/2 vs. Seattle (37)
PHILADELPHIA (55) - 3 vs. Arizona (38)
N Y JETS (48) - 7 1/2 vs. Denver (73)
BUFFALO (50) - 7 vs. San Francisco (44)
TAMPA BAY (65) - 3 1/2 vs. New Orleans (44)
GREEN BAY (61) - 3 vs. Carolina (31)
N Y Giants (84) - 3 1/2 vs. WASHINGTON (69)
Miami (24) - 7 1/2 vs. ST LOUIS (25)
Baltimore (51) - 7 vs. CINCINNATI (27)
Indianapolis (107) - 4 1/2 vs. CLEVELAND (33)
SAN DIEGO (50) - 5 vs Atlanta (64)
NEW ENGLAND (85) - 1 vs. Pittsburgh (45)
OAKLAND (53) - 3 vs Kansas City (45)
MINNESOTA (82) - 3 vs Chicago (27)
HOUSTON (48) - 3 vs Jacksonville (36)

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RON RAYMOND’S 5* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Washington Redskins (3.5)

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Pointwise Phone Plays

3* Baltimore
3* Kansas City
3* Denver
2* Miami
2* NY Giants
2* Jacksonville

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Indian Cowboy

TB-3.5 (pod)

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Larry Ness’ 9* NFL Total G.O.M (16-6 s/’03)

Larry’s NFL Total G.O.M. plays are highly anticipated and with good reason. His Oct Total of the Month (SD/NO over) in Wk 8 covered by more than three TDs. The win upped his NFL Total of the Month record to 16-6 (72.7%), going back to ‘03. It’s “that time of the month” again, as Larry features his 9* Total of the Month! Your move.

Pittsburgh/New England OVER

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Larry Ness’ NFL Divisional 9* (11-4 in Nov)

November’s been a HUGE ‘money month’ for Larry. His LEGEND win on Memphis (45-6) ups his run to 11-4 (73.3%) with 9 and 10* FB releases this month. The final day of November features his NFL Divisional 9*. Find out which division and which team inside, backed by Larry’s expert analysis. “The winning continues.” Want in?

TB Bucs

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Brandon Lang Sunday

25 Dime Giants (if your man has 4-1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay 4. If your man has 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay 3) - Analysis by 11 a.m. eastern

5 Dime 6-Point Teaser - Bills and Over

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DOC

4 Unit Play. #108 Take New England Patriots -1 over Pittsburgh Steelers

3 Unit Play. #97 Take Denver Broncos +7 ½ over New York Jets

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Las Vegas Sport Picks

NHL:

1* Rangers -1.5 +130

NBA:

2* Pistons -3

NFL:

2* Tampa Bay Bucs -4
2* Steelers +1
2* Chiefs/Raiders over 41
2* Broncos/Jets over 47
3* Packers -3
3* Steelers/Patriots over 39

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Gold Sheet NFL

KEY RELEASES

INDIANAPOLIS by 14 over Cleveland
OVER THE TOTAL in the San Francisco-Buffalo game

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NFL Week 13 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (18-17 = 51.4%)

Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns

Teams are scrambling for playoff spots and the cream is rising to the top. Some of the old reliable NFL powerhouses have been hot — and the Indianapolis Colts are no exception. The Colts have rang up four wins in a row — and the Public thinks they are the Colts of the past few years. More than 90% of all bets are taking the visiting Colts over the Cleveland Browns. That is huge! We also want our readers to note that a huge 95% of teaser / parlay bets are on the Colts; teasers and parlays typically represent very “square” bettors. The Public is all over the Colts and you know what that means: we want to “bet against the Public” and take the Cleveland Browns as a live home dog.

Note that before Indy’s winning streak, they were 3-4. Even now, the Colt’s “points for” minus “points against” is only 247 - 244 = +3. Even with the Public pounding their hard-earned money on the Colts, the sportsbooks have left the line solidly at Colts -4.5. The books look very content at taking the other side at Cleveland +4.5. We’ll join the sportsbooks, bet against the Public — and look for Cleveland to at least stay close in this game at home. If you shop around, you can find some +5’s around.

Cleveland Browns +5

Atlanta Falcons vs San Diego Chargers

This match-up falls into out “buy low and sell high” mantra. We’re selling Atlanta after its big win over Carolina — and buying San Diego on its lackluster performance in the previous week against a resurgent Indy team. The Public noticed these performances and is taking Atlanta plus the points to the tune of 70%. You don’t see the Public taking underdogs at this rate that often — and this is the same reason that you don’t often see our Sports MarketWatch pick favorites very often.

The NFL marketplace has been interesting for the Falcon-Charger game. The line opened at San Diego -5.5. We believe that the marketplace was surprised that the Public was on the underdog Falcons at the 70% rate they have been getting bets down on Atlanta. The line has been getting pushed down — and you can now get the Chargers -4. The past few years, San Diego has been hyped as a Superbowl contender. The Public is disappointed in the Chargers and is starting to jump on the Atlanta bandwagon. We like the value of the 1.5 line movement (especially into the “key 4″ number) — as well as a San Diego team at home — with its playoff-backs against the wall. Give the points.

San Diego Chargers -4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

NFL fans have been looking forward to this game! The Steelers are 8-3 and the Patriots are 7-4. New England is starting to pull it all together — but because of their early-season difficulties, the Pats are just a 1 point favorite at home. We believe there is value on the Pats at home at -1 — particularly because the Public remembers their early season slump.

NE QB, Matt Cassel, has been “coming into his own” and there is even talk of Tom Brady being on the trading block! There are also stories about Cassel making a huge name for himself — and the potential for him signing a huge contract at some point in the near future (read: contract year!). Either way, New England is looking strong in the QB position and is gaining momentum at the right time of the season this year.

New England Patriots -1

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (18-17 = 51.4%)

Cleveland Browns +5
San Diego Changers -4
New England Patriots -1
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

College football top 25 cheat sheet: Week 14

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Auburn at Alabama (-14.5)

Why Tigers cover: They have won six in a row in this series. The Tide are 0-4 ATS in their past four following a bye week. Auburn must win to become bowl eligible and perhaps to save Tommy Tuberville’s job. The Tigers may have found a new threat in RB Mario Fannin.

Why Crimson Tide cover: Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its past four road games and 1-8 ATS in its past nine overall. The Tigers have converted only 57 percent of their red-zone possessions into scores. Auburn has failed to score even a field goal in 15 of its 35 opportunities inside opponents’ 20-yard line. That won’t cut it against a defense that has allowed 10 points or fewer in three of the past four games.

Total (40.5): The under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (+7)

Why Sooners cover: The bigger the win the better the boost in BCS points. Look at these obscene offensive numbers: The Sooners have topped 60 points in each of their last three games and averaged 59 points and 598 yards. OU is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games.

Why Cowboys cover: They had a week off to prepare and top RB Kendall Hunter, the Big 12’s leading rusher, is healthy again after getting nicked up vs. Colorado. The Cowboys have dropped their last two to OU in Stillwater by a combined total of nine points. OSU’s offense won’t have to deal with Sooners DE Auston English, the preseason Big 12 defensive player of the year, who won’t play again this week due to injury. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six.

Total (72): The over is 7-0 in the Sooners’ past seven Big 12 games.

Florida at Florida State (+16.5)

Why Gators cover: Because they have by far the best two players on the field in Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. UF has won the last four in the series by an average of 18.5 points. UF is No. 1 in the country in turnover margin, and the FSU offense has had a few turnover-heavy games this year. Florida has the nation’s third highest-scoring defense.

Why Seminoles cover: They enter off probably their best game of the season, a rout of Maryland. The Gators are just 1-5 ATS in their past six visits to Tallahassee. This is FSU’s best running team in years, which may help keep the explosive UF offense off the field. The home team is 11-3 ATS in the past 14 meetings.

Total (57.5): The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings.

Notre Dame at Southern Cal (-32)

Why Irish cover: Maybe Charlie Weis gives a Gipper-esque speech. A win or at least close game here could earn him another season. Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS in its past eight road games. Jimmy Clausen needs a career night to keep this close.

Why Trojans cover: Have you seen Notre Dame lately? The Trojans have won six in a row in this series while averaging 41 points in those games. Last year’s 38-0 USC win was the most lopsided in the series. USC’s defense has allowed 46 total points in the past seven games. And by the way, Notre Dame just lost to Syracuse.

Total (47.5): The under is 10-1 in ND’s last 11 road games.

Baylor at Texas Tech (-22)

Why Bears cover: The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. Coach Art Briles is very familiar with the TTU program as a former player and coach there. Baylor’s offense, under QB Robert Griffin, can score some points. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their past four games..

Why Red Raiders cover: They aren’t out of anything yet, so they won’t let off the pedal. Baylor is winless on the road this season. TTU is 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings. Baylor has lost 12 straight in this series and 10 road conference games in a row. Graham Harrell will pad his Heisman stats.

Total (71): The over is 5-0 in TTU’s past five games.

Georgia Tech at Georgia (-8)

Why Yellow Jackets cover: While Georgia has owned this series, the Dawgs haven’t seen the triple-option. Tech is coming off its best game of the season, rushing for 472 yards against Miami. The Jackets are fourth in the nation in rushing offense at 270.8 yards, while Georgia has allowed an average of 167.4 on the ground in its past five games. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its past four home games.

Why Bulldogs cover: Georgia Tech might be more focused on the scoreboard: The Virginia-Virginia Tech game is being played at same time, and a Hokies loss sends Tech to the ACC title game. The Bulldogs have won seven in a row in the series and had an extra week to prepare for the triple-option. Georgia is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.

Total (48.5): The under is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in Athens.

Kansas at Missouri (-16)

Why Jayhawks cover: Missouri has nothing to play for here. The Tigers are in the Big 12 title game regardless and will only earn a BCS bowl berth with a win there. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. QB Todd Reesing gets to see a pass defense in the bottom 10 of Division I.

Why Tigers cover: Chase Daniel has thrown seven TD passes and no INTs in the Tigers’ last two games against Kansas. Star tight end Chase Coffman is expected to return from a two-game absence. Other than a 3-point loss to South Florida, Kansas hasn’t really been close against ranked teams this year.

Total (68.5): The over is 4-1 in KU’s past five Big 12 games.

Syracuse at Cincinnati (-22)

Why Orange cover: It’s coach Greg Robinson’s final game, so that may get his players fired up. And the Orange do enter off an upset of Notre Dame (if that’s even an upset anymore). Cincy is without top cornerback Mike Mickens who’s out with an injury. The underdog is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings.

Why Bearcats cover: They have every reason to be focused: A win gets UC the Big East title. QB Tony Pike is rolling, winning six of his seven starts with 14 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. UC has averaged 30.0 points at home this season, holding three of its five opponents to 10 or fewer.

Total (49.5): The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.

Oregon at Oregon State (-3)

Why Ducks cover: By far the biggest reason would be that OSU star freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers is “very doubtful” with an injury. Rodgers leads the Pac-10 in rushing. Oregon is actually a better rushing team than OSU, ranking sixth in the country with 268.1 yards per game on the ground. Wouldn’t the Ducks just love to ruin OSU’s Rose Bowl chances in the Civil War?

Why Beavers cover: Because it’s for the program’s first Rose Bowl in more than four decades! Jacquizz Rodgers has been begging coach Mike Riley to play, and with more than a month off following this game, maybe Riley relents. Quarterback Lyle Moevao is back from his injury but may or may not start. The Ducks are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings in Corvallis.

Total (60): The over is 6-0 in the past six meetings.

Maryland at Boston College (-6.5)

Why Terrapins cover: They see a redshirt freshman making his first career start in BC’s Dominique Davis. Maryland is 4-0 against ranked teams this season and bounced back from each of its three previous losses to beat a ranked foe the following week. Boston College is 2-6 ATS in its past eight ACC games. QB Chris Turner torched BC last year for 337 yards and three TDs.

Why Eagles cover: Defense! BC is tied for the Division I lead (with USC) with three shutouts this season. The Eagles rank among the I-A leaders in interceptions (first - 23), turnovers gained (second - 31), pass efficiency defense (fourth), total defense (fifth - 269.6 ypg) and rushing defense (seventh - 95.8 ypg). Maryland is 1-4 ATS in its past five road games. Most important: A win gets BC the ACC title.

Total (41.5): The under is 8-1 in the Terps’ past nine ACC games

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First aid kit: NCF line-shifting injuries

Florida (-16.5) at Florida State

INJURY: Florida DT Matt Patchan suffered a season-ending hip injury and DE Lawrence Marsh suffered knee injuries which has limited him.

STATUS: Patchan is out, Marsh is questionable

ANALYSIS: This line opened with Florida as 15-point road chalk and players have pounced hard on the Gators. Ninety-two percent of the action is on the favorite - an indication this line opened well short. This has moved the line to 16.5 and it seems that some sharps are out there waiting to see how far the steam will carry the favorite before moving on the underdog Seminoles. The rivalry aspect always plays a part in these games and Florida State is now surging after a 37-3 drubbing of Maryland in College Park. If you look deeper, there are injuries that smart players will certainly take into account. Both teams rank in the top 10 nationally in total defense and losing these players could have a significant impact on the Gators’ performance. Many bettors seem to be ignoring the injuries, but the possible loss of two serious contributors on the Florida defensive line is nothing to sneeze at. Look for the action to move strongly toward Florida State if this line moves much more.

Oregon (+3) at Oregon State

INJURY: Oregon QB Lyle Moevao missed last week’s game at Arizona with a shoulder injury and RB Jacquizz Rodgers suffered a second-degree shoulder sprain late in the Arizona game.

STATUS: Moevao is expected to return while Rodgers was quoted by Coach Mike Reilly as “very doubtful.”

ANALYSIS: Oregon State opened as 3-point favorites against the Oregon Ducks in this rivalry game known as The Civil War. Ordinarily, this would be a fairly low line for a team that is at home having only to win this game to clinch its first Pac-10 championship in 44 years. But the loss of Jacquizz Rodgers is incalculable because he was the only reason the Beavers were able to topple the USC Trojans earlier this year and sharp bettors are taking this into account. The early action is split 50/50 between these two teams and more is coming in on the Ducks as we speak. Oregon has a very poor pass defense, ranking 102nd nationally, but Oregon State has shown no ability to beat anyone through the air. With Rodgers out, sharps are finding a lot of value in an Oregon team who now has a real reason to believe it can win.

Maryland (+6.5) at Boston College

INJURY: Boston College QB Chris Crane broke his collarbone last week against Wake Forest.

STATUS: Crane is out for the season and is being replaced by Dominique Davis, who will be starting his first career game.

ANALYSIS: Boston College opened as 6.5-point favorites and sharps immediately moved towards Maryland as the Terrapins are a quality team who may have simply had a bad game last week against Florida State. Crane has started every game this season for BC and that experience is hard to replace. Davis has a big upside, but in the final game of the year when everyone is positioning for more prestigious bowls, these lights may be too bright for the freshman to handle. Expect this line to drop at least 0.5 points to 6 before players start seeing enough value in the Eagles to start laying their money on the line. Boston College needs only to win this game to advance to the ACC title game, but a Terrapin team with nothing to lose and a chip on its shoulder may make it tough on them

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Service Plays

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Nelly’s Greensheet

RATING 2 HOUSTON (-3) over Rice
RATING 1 OKLAHOMA STATE (+7½) over Oklahoma

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Pointwise Turkey Day weekend FB

POINTWISE 1* (12-14)……. FLORIDA…..MEMPHIS
POINTWISE 2* (4-10) .. TEX TECH

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1–Florida over FLORIDA STATE 47-14
1–MEMPHIS over Tulane 41-17
2–TEXAS TECH over Baylor 55-17
3–Georgia Tech (+) over GEORGIA 26-27

4–Tulsa over MARSHALL 41-20

5–HAWAII over Washington State 55-14

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THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (32-25)
NC ST
VANDY
S.MISS
G TECH
ARK ST

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NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (94-71-1)
V. TECH
MEMPHIS
MISSOURI
FLORIDA
TENN
C.FLORIDA

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Dr. Bob

Maryland (+7) 3-Stars at +7 (-115 odds or better), 2-Stars from +6 1/2 to +5.
Oklahoma State (+7) 2-Stars at +4 or more, 3-Stars at +7 1/2 or more.
Strong Opinion - Arizona State (-9 1/2) Strong Opinion at -10 or less.
Strong Opinion - Alabama (-14) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.

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IndianCowboy

Game: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Georgia Bulldogs - Saturday November 29, 2008 12:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +8 (-110) (Normal)

Game:Auburn Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide - Saturday November 29, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Alabama Crimson Tide -14.5 (-110) (Normal)

Game: Florida Gators @ Florida State Seminoles - Saturday November 29, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Florida State Seminoles +16.5 (-110) (Normal)

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NORTH COAST

EARLY BIRD POW…FLORIDA -15

COMP UNDER DOG POW…NEW MEXICO STATE +6

#2 ECONOMY CLUB POW…NEVADA -4

PAC 10 POW….WASHINGTON STATE + 28′

BIG DOG POW….MARSHALL+14

BIG 12 POW…..TEXAS TECH -20

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Kelso’s Saturday 100 unit play

Saturday, November 29, 2008
Big 12 Rivalry Game Of The Year

100 Units Oklahoma (-7½) over Oklahoma State

8:00 PM — Boone Pickens Stadium
Oklahoma by 17-21
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60

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Las Vegas Sport Picks

NCAA Football:

1* Oklahoma State +250 (Good value on a good team at home)
1* Georgia Tech + 255
1* Oregon +125
2* Baylor/Texas Tech over 69
2* NV/La Tech over 61
2* Georgia Tech +8
2* Florida/FSU under 55
2* Hawaii -28
3* Houston/Rice over 78
3* Oregon +3
4* Memphis -14
4* Oklahoma/Oklahoma State over 75

NHL:

1* Bruins +105
1* Coyotes +140

NBA/NCAA Basketball:

2* Grizzlies -8
2* Clippers -1
2* Cavaliers -7
2* OKC/Memphis under 194

2* New Mexico -1

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BEN BURNS
THE GAME OF THE YEAR

I’m laying the points with GEORGIA. Recent results have given us excellent value with a very strong Georgia team which I feel will be extremely motivated. The Bulldogs are 2-1 the last three games but were 0-3 against the number. Those pointspread losses didn’t surprise me though as I successfully played against Georgia in each of its last two games. Off their blowout loss to Florida and with Auburn on deck, I felt that the Bulldogs would have trouble getting up for their road game at Kentucky. That proved to be the case as Georgia won by only four points as a 13.5 point favorite. I also felt that the Bulldogs were laying too many points in their last game, which was also on the road. The Bulldogs were playing their sixth game in six weeks and I didn’t feel that they would be able to cover the large number (-9) vs. Auburn, a hated conference rival. Once again, Georgia won by four points but didn’t cover. Working in our favor is that the Bulldogs were a very popular pick with the betting public in both those recent ATS losses and many bettors don’t like to continue to lose with a team more than a couple of times in a row. In other words, many won’t be willing to back the Bulldogs here which again goes back to my point about line value. Likewise, Georgia Tech’s last game (vs. Miami) also works in our favor here. You’ll probably remember that contest as it was televised on ESPN and was the only NCAA game being played on that Thursday. I played on the Yellow Jackets as small favorites in that game and they won by 18 points. As a result of that blowout, everyone’s impression is that the Yellow Jackets are a national powerhouse and that getting points with them sounds pretty appealing. Once again, this has kept this line from getting out of control. Give the Yellow Jackets credit. Paul Johnson did a great job at Navy and he’s come in here and done well here in his first season as coach at Georgia Tech as the Yellow Jackets are a highly respectable 8-3. No matter what happens today, they’ll still be at least tied for the best record in the ACC Central That being said, two of their victories came against the likes of I-AA teams Jacksonville State and Gardner Webb, who they beat by only three points, and the ACC hasn’t been very strong overall this season. The Yellow Jackets are just 2-2 on the road and they’ve been outscored by a 20.2 to 16.2 margin in those four games. In their last road game, they were blown out 27-6 at North Carolina. In my opinion, Georgia, which entered the season with the #1 ranking in the polls is a much more powerful team than any that Georgia Tech has seen this year. People view the Bulldogs as a disappointment. That’s only because of the massive amount of talent on the roster though and because there originally had been thoughts of an undefeated season. Georgia still went 9-2 while playing in an extremely tough SEC conference. Their only two losses came vs. Alabama and Florida and those two teams are #1 and #2 in the country. Speaking of that Florida loss, that’s still fresh on the Bulldogs’ minds as this is their first home game since that debacle. They’d love nothing more than to get rid of those bad memories by closing out their “disappointing” regular season with a blowout win of their instate rival. The Bulldogs are more than capable of doing it, too. They lead the SEC in total offense with 429 yards per game and 31.2 points per game. Those numbers increase to a whopping 36.2 and 458.8 here at home. Keep in mind that those numbers are coming against many of the top defenses in the country. QB Matthew Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno, and WR A.J. Green lead the SEC in passing, rushing and receiving respectively. Wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi is also having a strong season, ranking third in the conference in receiving yards. While the Yellow Jackets have done a great job at learning Paul Johnson’s offense, they aren’t designed to play from behind. That’s why the fact that they scored 16 points on the road compared to Georgia’s 36+ at home is so important. It should also be noted that Georgia is coming off a much-needed bye and that the Bulldogs are an excellent 5-0 (3-0 ATS) the last five times they were coming off a bye and 31-11 (26-14 ATS) the last 42. Looking at the series history and we find that the Bulldogs have dominated the recent meetings, one of the big reasons Chan Gailey was replaced. Last year’s 14-point win marked the seventh straight victory for the Bulldogs and Gailey was fired right after the game. Johnson is a better coach than Gailey and he’ll eventually do what Gailey was unable to and beat Georgia. It won’t be on the road in his first year though - not against one of Georgia’s best teams in years. Keep in mind that the Bulldogs won by 14 on the road last year and that they returned 17 starters from that team. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets returned just nine starters and had to learn an entirely new system. I used the Bulldogs last New Year’s Day in the Sugar Bowl as my “Bowl Game of the Year.” Feeling disrespected by the nation, they rewarded me by laying a 41-10 beating on a previously undefeated Hawaii team. Once again, the Bulldogs are well-rested and once again they feel that they’ve got something to prove. I expect them to deliver another double-digit victory. *2008 GOY

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Brandon Lang

Saturday

30 Dime Rice

10 Dime 6-Point Teaser - Georgia Tech / N.C. State

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NSA

20* Alabama -14.5
10* Georgia Tech +7.5
10* USC -31.5
10* Kansas @ Missouri 10* OVER 69
10* Florida @ Florida St 3:30 PM EST 10* OVER 55
NBA 10* Denver -4
CBB 10* Massachusetts +1.5

Service Plays

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Kelso’s 50 unit Friday play.

Friday, November 28, 2008
Big East Game Of The Year50 UnitsPittsburgh (+3½) over West Virginia
12:00 PM — Heinz Field
Pittsburgh by 6-7
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of snow. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 40

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North coast

power plays 4* gow
ole miss -14

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Carlo Campanella

West Virginia (7-3) started the year with a few upset losses, however, they’ve turned their season around by winning 5 of their last 6 games. They now find themselves as small road Favorites on Friday against fellow Big East rival Pittsburgh (7-3). The Mountaineers have dominated this series, posting a 6-2 SU & ATS during the last 8 meetings and should continue their winning ways against this Pittsburgh squad. Lay the points with West Virginia, who’s 7-1 ATS in their second of back to back road games.

7* Play On West Virginia

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Ethan Law — NCAA - Friday

CONFIRMED FRIDAY NCAA SELECTIONS (FINAL)
2% on Kent State Golden Flashes +9
2% on UTEP Miners +5
2% on Toledo Rockets +1.5
2% on Miami RedHawks +1

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Vegas Edge Newsletter

3* West Virginia at Pittsburgh - Friday, November 28

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Dr. Bob

4 Star Selection
MISSISSIPPI (-17.0) 38 Mississippi St. 9
28-Nov-08 09:30 AM Pacific Time
I’ll take Mississippi in a 4-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less, for 3-Stars from -17 ½ to -19 and for 2-Stars at -19 ½ or -20 points.
3 Star Selection

Strong Opinions
ARIZONA ST. (-9.5) 27 UCLA 10
28-Nov-08 06:30 PM Pacific Time
I’ll consider Arizona State a Strong Opinion at -10 or less based on Erickson’s history as a home favorite.

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Power Sweep

4* Missouri over Kansas 48-20
3* Rice (+) over Houston 47-40
3* Temple over Akron 38-30
2* Maryland (+) over Boston College 21-17
2* Nebraska over Colorado 38-14
2* LSU over Arkansas 38-28

Underdog Play…UTEP over East Carolina 30-23

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Marc Lawrence’s Playbook

Friday, November 28th

West Virginia over PITTSBURGH by 7
MIAMI OHIO over Ohio U by 1
OLE MISS over Mississippi St by 7
Akron over Temple by 2
Utep over EAST CAROLINA by 1
C Michigan over E MICHIGAN by 14
BUFFALO over Kent St by 1

3* BEST BET
Lsu over ARKANSAS by 14

TOLEDO over Bowling Green by 3

5* BEST BET
NEBRASKA over Colorado by 28

BOISE ST over Fresno St by 13
ARIZONA ST over Ucla by 11

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The Gold Sheet

KEY RELEASES

CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 21 over Eastern Michigan (Friday)
UCLA by 1 over Arizona State (Friday)

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Nelly’s Greensheet

RATING 5 NEBRASKA (-16) over Colorado
RATING 4 WEST VIRGINIA (-3) over Pittsburgh
RATING 3 FRESNO STATE (+19½) over Boise State
RATING 2 MISSISSIPPI (-13) over Mississippi State
RATING 2 HOUSTON (-3) over Rice
RATING 1 UTEP (+5½) over East Carolina
RATING 1 OKLAHOMA STATE (+7½) over Oklahoma

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POINTWISE NEWSLETTER

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1–Florida over FLORIDA STATE 47-14
1–MEMPHIS over Tulane 41-17
2–TEXAS TECH over Baylor 55-17
3–Georgia Tech (+) over GEORGIA 26-27
3–NEBRASKA over Colorado 55-27
4–Tulsa over MARSHALL 41-20
5–MISSISSIPPI over Mississippi State 37-13
5–HAWAII over Washington State 55-14

HAPPY AND SAFE THANKSGIVING EVERYONE ! ! !

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What bettors need to know: NFL Thanksgiving Day feast

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (+13, 44.)

Line movement

To the surprise of no one, the public is heavily on the Titans. More than four out of five bets are on the favorites. Despite that, the line has stayed remarkably stable on the opening number of 11. It is available at 12 in some spots, but those are rare.

Total

The total opened at 43.5 points. In the face of heavy action on the over it has moved to 44 and, in several places, 44.5. Tennessee is 3-3 over/under in its last six games. Detroit’s defense makes it hard to stay under, no matter how bad it plays offensively. The Lions have gone over five times and pushed once in their last six contests.

Series history

These teams have only played three times this decade. Tennessee has won all three, but by five points or fewer each time.

Common opponents

Despite being in different conferences, the teams have had five common opponents. The Titans are 6-0 (5-1 ATS) against that group. The winless Lions are, obviously, 0-5 against the group but they are 2-3 ATS.

Which Johnson is better?

For Detroit to stand a chance they need to do two things. They must establish Calvin Johnson so he can have a big day and shut down Chris Johnson.

Tennessee’s Johnson is five weeks removed from a 100 yard rushing game and has had two of his three worst performances of the year in his last three outings. He stands a very good chance of a break out game against the worst rushing defense in the NFL.

Detroit’s Johnson is the closest thing to a weapon the Lions have, though his effect is greatly diminished by the lack of a legitimate quarterback. Johnson is in deep against Tennessee’s seventh rated pass defense, especially since he is nursing a sore thigh. On the other hand, Johnson averaged 22 yards per catch on three receptions and scored a touchdowns, sore leg and all, against Tampa Bay’s second rated pass defense last weekend.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-13, 47)

Line movement

Nearly 80 percent of bets have been on Dallas. That has forced the line to move steadily upwards. It opened at 10, and is now available as high as 13. Nothing about the movement indicates that smart money is aggressively in play.

Total

The total opened at 48 points and has since dropped to as low as 46.5. The last four meetings between these teams, stretching back to 2005, have all gone under. Seattle has gone under in five of its last six. Inept offense will do that. Though Dallas was an over machine earlier in the season, its has two unders in its last four.

Weather

The temperature will be comfortable - 72 degrees. There is a chance of late afternoon showers.

Series history

Though Seattle has won two of the last three meetings, Dallas has covered five in a row. It’s a sign of how far the Seahawks have fallen in a short time that they were favored when the teams met in January.

Travel woes

This is the fifth time that Seattle has had to travel outside of the pacific time zone this year. It has yet to win, though has covered the last two spreads. This isn’t a new phenomenon for this team. A much better squad was just 2-5 outside of its conference last year.

T.O. awakens

For perhaps only the second time all year, Terrell Owens looked like the ferocious beast that he can be last week. He piled up 213 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Niners. Interestingly, his other big game was against his other former team, the Eagles. Owens won’t have the revenge factor against Seattle, but the Seahawks will be challenged to stack up to stop Marion Barber and not leave Owens in the single coverage he is so able to exploit. Seattle is second worst against the pass in the league, so it could be a long day.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 47)

Line movement

This is by far the best game of the day, so it is notable that the volume is far below the other two games and nearly half of the Dallas game. Those that are betting are relatively in agreement with 70 percent of bets on Arizona. That isn’t enough to widely move the spread off the key number of three, though it is now down to 2.5 in a couple of spots.

Total

The number is stable at the opening 46.5 points, with movement to 47 in some places. The teams went over in their only recent meeting in 2005, but since neither Kurt Warner nor Donovan McNabb played in that game (or Brian Westbrook for that matter) it’s hardly relevant. Arizona and its air show have gone over in six of its last eight but the two unders came in its last four. Philly has gone over just twice in its last five, but those have come in its last three.

Weather

It’s going to be a clear and cold 35 degrees with basically no chance of precipitation. Winds won’t be a significant factor, as they will top out at gusts of 10 mph. That’s as good as you can hope for November in Philadelphia.

Is Clinching an incentive?

The Cardinals can clinch their first ever NFC West crown with a win here. That’s a huge accomplishment but it might be easy to overcompensate for it as a motivator. The Cardinals are so far ahead and chased by such incompetence that they are virtually certain to win no matter what they do. Instead of a motivator, their massive lead to could induce lethargy.

300 yards. Ho-hum

It has been a month and a half since Warner has thrown less than 300 yards in a game. The public loves big passing performances and has is well aware of the five game streak. Their excitement might not be warranted, though. The big stats have only led to a 3-2 record straight up and ATS. Philly may not be able to slow down Warner, but it still stands a good chance if it can win the turnover battle. Arizona has won the turnover battle in the three wins, and lost it in the two losses.

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Trends - Tennessee at Detroit

ATS Trends

Tennessee
Titans are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Titans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Titans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Titans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Titans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.
Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November.

Detroit

Lions are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Lions are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 13.
Lions are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Lions are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss.
Lions are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Lions are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Lions are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
Lions are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
Lions are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.
Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.

OU Trends

Tennessee
Under is 6-1 in Titans last 7 road games.
Under is 9-2 in Titans last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games on field turf.
Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games in November.
Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Detroit

Over is 5-0 in Lions last 5 games in November.
Over is 8-0-1 in Lions last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-0-1 in Lions last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 7-1-1 in Lions last 9 games on field turf.
Over is 6-1-1 in Lions last 8 home games.
Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 Thursday games.
Over is 19-7-1 in Lions last 27 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 8-3 in Lions last 11 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 20-8-1 in Lions last 29 games overall.
Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 7-3 in Lions last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

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Trends - Seattle at Dallas

ATS Trends

Seattle
Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 13.
Seahawks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Seahawks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.
Seahawks are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Dallas

Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Cowboys are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Cowboys are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. NFC.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

OU Trends

Seattle
Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games in November.
Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in Week 13.
Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 vs. NFC.
Over is 21-8 in Seahawks last 29 games on grass.
Over is 5-2 in Seahawks last 7 road games.
Over is 12-5 in Seahawks last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Dallas

Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 home games.
Over is 4-1-1 in Cowboys last 6 games in Week 13.
Over is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 games in November.
Over is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 Thursday games.
Over is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games overall.
Over is 20-8-3 in Cowboys last 31 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 vs. NFC.
Under is 14-6 in Cowboys last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 45-21-3 in Cowboys last 69 vs. a team with a losing record.

Head to Head

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings

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Service Plays

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Brandon Lang Happy Thanksgiving!!!

30 Dime Philadelphia Eagles (if your book is offering a 3-1/2 on the game, you can buy a half-point and lay just -3 points. Whatever you do, don’t get beat by the hook.)

10-Dime 6-point teaser - Titans/OVER Seattle-Dallas

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northcoast

only star play 2 star dallas-12

top-

tex over 68,
tennessee-11,
philly over 46

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FRANK PATRON

30000 UNIT LOCK #31

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3

Any shot they have at making the playoffs is gone if they dont win this game and being home with Arizona having to travle across the country on a short week I feel the Eagles will be more prepared and that McNabb will bounce back in a big way. Arizona has been miserable on the East Coast this year and in the cold weather on that short week dont expect much better from them come Thursday night. The Eagles are a great bet

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adam meyer

thursday foots

5* eagles -2.5
4* tenn -11
4* dallas over 46

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Larry’s Week 13 Las Vegas Insider (9-2 TY)

How much better can it get? Larry and his “unmatched” are 9-2 (81.8%) with his exclusive NFL Las Vegas Insiders TY. His complete DOMINATION of the NFL pointspread continues, as Larry’s offering up a Thanksgiving treat! His NFL Insider for Wk 13 is on one of the three Thanksgiving Day games. “It pays to be on the inside with Larry.” Want in?

Philadelphia Eagles

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RON RAYMOND’S THANKSGIVING DAY SHOCKER!
Pick # 1 Detroit Lions (11)

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DR BOB

2 Star Selection
Seattle (+12.5) 22 DALLAS 25
27-Nov-08 01:15 PM Pacific Time
Dallas is obviously a much better team now that they have Tony Romo firing balls down the field, but the Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of more than 10 points – all of them with Romo at quarterback. Another letdown by Dallas is very likely in this game, as the Cowboys apply to a negative 70-144-3 ATS situation while Seattle applies to a very strong 50-11-1 ATS situation. Those angles actually intersect quite often and the record is an incredible 27-1-1 ATS for the dog when they both apply to the same game, including a straight up win by Oakland at Denver last week. My math model favors Dallas by 13 ½ points, but my other math model favors Dallas by just 12 points, so the line is certainly fair in this game. The Seahawks have Matt Hasselbeck back at quarterback and they’ve played very competitively in recent weeks, losing by margins of 2 points, 6 points and 3 points to 3 teams with winning records (Miami, Arizona, and Washington) and Seattle is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 8 points or more under coach Mike Holmgren, including 2-0 ATS this season. I’ll take Seattle in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 3-Stars at +13 or more.

NFL Strong Opinions

DETROIT (+11.0) 17 Tennessee 23
27-Nov-08 09:30 AM Pacific Time
Detroit is still winless, but the Lions are also 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season and they apply to a very strong 49-9-1 ATS home underdog situation in addition to a couple of other favorable contrary situations. Tennessee is a below average offensive team that will most likely stick to their rushing attack this week after abandoning the run in last week’s loss in New York. While the Titans will have success on the ground against Detroit’s soft defensive front (I project 4.6 ypr), a run-oriented attack will serve to eat the clock and shorten this game. My main math model favors Tennessee by just 7 ½ points in this game, but the Titans tend to play better than their yardage stats suggest and my other model, which takes into account scoring efficiencies of each team, favors Tennessee by 12 ½ points. A point spread of 11 points seems to be about right and the situations is certainly strong enough to consider Detroit as a possible Best Bet. However, Tennessee has played two games this season against other bottom teams and those games were easy wins for the Titans – 24-7 at Cincinnati and 34-10 at Kansas City. Those two games are not enough to sway me from liking Detroit in a great situation, but they’re enough to keep me from making the Lions a Best Bet. I’ll consider Detroit a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more

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DOC

3 Unit Play. #6 Take Texas Longhorns over Texas A & M Aggies (Thursday 8:00 pm ESPN) The annual meeting between the Horns and Aggies has turned into a dud this season with A & M falling off the radar. The Aggies got killed by Baylor last week and that does not bode well entering this contest. Coach Sherman appears he has taken on more then he can handle in College Station and Texas needs a blowout victory in order to hold onto the No. 2 spot in the BCS. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and Texas is 13-2 ATS in their last game of the season at Memorial Stadium. Texas makes a statement and keeps the No. 2 ranking as we collect big in the process as well. Texas 55, Texas A & M 7

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Las Vegas Sport Picks

NBA:

2* Hornets/Nuggets under 197

NCAA:

1* Cal St.-Fullerton +11
1* Georgetown -17
1* UTEP +11
2* Gonzaga -8
2* Tennessee -7
3* Baylor -3

NFL/NCAAF:

1* Texas A&M +35
2* A&M/TX over 67

2* Eagles -3
2* Cowboys -12
2* Titans -11
3* Cardinals/Eagles over 47

NHL:

1* Leafs/Senators over 5.5 -130

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GoldSheet Thursday TURKEYDAY KEY RELEASE:

Thursday: Titans over Cowardly Lions by 21

(Best best teaser-Tenn and Under)

Service Plays

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DCI NHL
11/26/08 Predictions
Season: 103-73 (.585)

WASHINGTON 4, Atlanta 3
COLUMBUS 3, Phoenix 2
N.Y. Rangers 3, TAMPA BAY 2
DETROIT 3, Montreal 2
MINNESOTA 3, Dallas 2
COLORADO 3, St. Louis 2
EDMONTON 4, Los Angeles 3
SAN JOSE 4, Chicago 3

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Cappers Access

Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
Wed (NBA) 76ers Magic 2 76ers
Wed (CBB) Oklahoma UAB 3- Oklahoma

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Insider Sports Report

Miami Heat +7

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Larry Ness’ 25-Club CBB Play-1st TY (10*)

An 8-2-1 five-day run was derailed by an 0-2 Tues in CBB but Larry won’t let that deter him, as he’s been waiting for this NIT semifinal matchup since it was set back on 11/18. Larry’s 1st 25-Club play of the CBB season goes tonight, a play which represents Larry’s 25 years in the business and carries a 10* rating. Any takers?

Oklahoma Sooners

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Patron

10000 UNIT WEDNESDAY COLLEGE HOOPS LOCK

OKLAHOMA SOONERS -4

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Spritzer

CBB 25* Blowout

Purdue

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Lance’s Lock

Overall record: 699-592-24

Current streak: 1 loss

Todays play: UAB +3′

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Las Vegas Sport Picks

NHL:
2* PHX/Columbus over 5.5 +110
1* Avs -1.5 +165
1* Oilers -1.5 +165
1* Chi/Sharks over 5.5 -115
1* Pens/NYI over 5.5 -115

NBA/NCAAB:

1* UNC -10
2* Oklahoma -4
2* South Alabama -3
3* Purdue -8
3* Texas/Oregon over 144

2* Blazers -7
2* Hawks -7
2* Kings -2
3* Warriors/Celtics under 206
3* Bulls/Spurs under 191
4* Heat/Blazers under 192

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JEFFERSONSPORTS 3-1 yest

18-4 in college hoops (82%)

All sports run 29-9 last 38 plays (76%)

EARLY RELEASE NCAA HOOPS
TEXAS OVER 145
PURDUE-8

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The Consensus Group
6000* COLLEGE HOOPS LATE STEAM WINNER
760 Purdue -8.5 7:00 EST

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PickLogic’s Pick:

Game: Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics
Sport: National Basketball Association
Date: Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Time: 4:35 PM Pacific time
Selection: OVER the “total” of 203, -110
Wager: 1 unit

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KindergartenCapper

Tex vs Ore over 144(watch this soar…better get it early)
Indiana St-1
Purdue vs BC under 135
Clev. St -4
Minnesota vs EWU 125.5
Northern Col +2
Northern Col vs. Den over 122
UAB +5(bought a half)
Air Force +18.5
Montana State +6.5

Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints

- The Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at Louisiana Superdome.

Oddsmakers currently have the Saints listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Packers, while the game’s total is sitting at 51.

The Packers defeated Chicago 37-3 as a 3.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43).

Aaron Rodgers passed for 227 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for Green Bay, while Ryan Grant rushed for 145 yards with a touchdown in the win.

The Saints defeated Kansas City 30-20 as a 6-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (51).

Lance Moore caught eight passes for 102 yards and a touchdown, while Drew Brees passed for 266 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the win.

Team records:
Green Bay: 5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS
New Orleans: 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS

Green Bay most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 5-5

New Orleans most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Green Bay’s last 19 games
Green Bay is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans’s last 7 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans’s last 10 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Next up:
Green Bay home to Carolina, Sunday, November 30
New Orleans at Tampa Bay, Sunday, November 30

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BETTING TRENDS

GREEN BAY
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Green Bay’s last 19 games
Green Bay is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Green Bay is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay’s last 10 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New Orleans’s last 15 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans’s last 10 games at home
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans’s last 7 games when playing Green Bay
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay

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INJURIES

GREEN BAY
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Nick Barnett LB Out Week 12 (knee)
Jarrett Bush CB Questionable Week 12 (ankle)
James Jones WR Questionable Week 12 (knee)
Charlie Peprah S Questionable Week 12 (calf)
DeShawn Wynn RB Questionable Week 12 (calf)
Chad Clifton T Probable Week 12 (knees)
Colin Cole DT Probable Week 12 (elbow)
Donald Driver WR Probable Week 12 (knee)
Aaron Kampman DE Probable Week 12 (calf)
Jeremy Thompson DE Probable Week 12 (groin)
Scott Wells C Probable Week 12 (shoulder)
Charles Woodson CB Probable Week 12 (toe)

NEW ORLEANS
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Aaron Glenn CB Out Week 12 (ankle)
Mike Karney RB Out Week 12 (knee)
Reggie Bush RB Questionable Week 12 (knee)
Marques Colston WR Probable Week 12 (knee)
Jonathan Goodwin C Probable Week 12 (knee)
Deuce McAllister RB Probable Week 12 (knee)
Jon Stinchcomb T Probable Week 12 (calf)

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Recent Trends

Green Bay:

* Over is 8-1-1 in GB last 10 road games.
* GB are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
* GB are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.

New Orleans:

* Over is 10-1-1 in NO last 12 games on field turf.
* Over is 8-1-1 in NO last 10 home games.
* Over is 11-3-1 in NO last 15 games overall.

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Service Plays

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Sixth Sense

3% GREEN BAY +2.5

NEW ORLEANS –2.5 Green Bay 51.5

Packers destroyed Chicago last week 37-3 and out gained the Bears 6.3yppl to 4.3yppl. Most surprising in that game was they rushed for 200 yards at 5.3ypr and held the Bears to just 4.3ypr. They also out passed Chicago 7.6yps to 4.4yps. The Saints went to KC and defeated the Chiefs 30-20, out gaining them 5.8yppl to 5.0yppl, including out passing them 7.4yps to 4.9yps. They were out rushed in the game 5.2ypr to 3.7ypr. For the season, the Packers are now average rushing the ball, averaging 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr. But, they average 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.1ypr but the Saints don’t rush the ball well, averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr. GB allows just 5.1yps against 6.0yps and is getting better and healthier in the secondary. They allow 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl overall. The Saints average 7.9yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.4yppl overall. On defense they allow 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl overall. NO qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 79-34-6. Both teams actually qualify in a scheduling situation as long as this line is less than three points. If it is three points or higher, the Saints would not qualify. That situation is 65-25-2. The Saints also qualify in a negative rushing situation, which is 114-47-8. Numbers favor the Saints by just 1.5 points and predict about 57 points. The Saints are just 1-5 SU this year against .500 or better teams. The Packers are 3-5 SU in the same role but three of those five losses were by three points or less. The situations favoring GB are a little stronger as is the value. I have gone against GB three weeks in a row now and lost each of those weeks, although the Packers lost two of those three games but still managed to cover the spread. The Packers strength is their pass defense and throwing the ball. That matches up well against the Saints. Also, GB seems to have gained some momentum last week with their victory over the Bears and with their health getting better this is a good spot for them here. Total is a little too high for me to bite on the over. GREEN BAY 33 NEW ORLEANS 27

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JB’S COMPUTER PLAYS

Green Bay Packers +2½

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STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (24-33-1)

11/24/2008 (225) GREEN BAY at (226) NEW ORLEANS
I brought up the term “false favorites” before. New Orleans could
easily apply in this situation, as teams with defenses as poor as the
Saints never make for good chalk. HC Sean Payton’s team is giving up
a healthy 24.9 PPG and 5.7 YPP. The Packers have thrived on such
teams under Mike McCarthy: McCarthy is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. bad
defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of
GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 26.7, OPPONENT
14.2 - (Rating = 1*). Green Bay showed its makeup last week in routing
Chicago, as McCarthy was able to instill a sense of urgency after losses
to Tennessee and Minnesota. With a +6.4 Outplay Factor Rating, Green
Bay is climbing the charts quickly. Meanwhile, the Saints are in mediocre
land at +0.6. That tells me the wrong club is favored. Barring turnover
concerns, the Packers should get it done here.
Play: Green Bay +2.5

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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (6-7)

4 BEST BET
NEW ORLEANS over Green Bay by 13
Both teams line up under the Monday night lights off double-digit wins
and covers last week, jockeying for position in this year’s playoff picture
with four other teams each with 5 wins on the season. Thus, this is a
crucial game for both clubs. The 5-5 Pack has tanked on the road in
November in games off a double-digit win, going 2-11 ATS. Meanwhile,
thanks to their No. 1 ranked offense, the 5-5 Saints have managed to
outgain all but two foes in total yardage this season. With New Orleans
looking to ‘Prove It All Night’, expect the Saints to improve to 5-1 SU
and ATS at home in the Dome this season. N’Awlins, in a Brees

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THE GOLD SHEET (20-15)… OVER NO/GB

KEY RELEASES

OVER THE TOTAL in the Green Bay-New Orleans game

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Norm Hitzges

NFL

Triple Play–Green Bay +2.5 vs New Orleans

Single Plays

Green Bay/New Orleans Over 51.5

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Spylock

11/24/08 Green Bay Packers
8:40 PM New Orleans Saints

3* Packers +2.5

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Nelly’s

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2008

NEW ORLEANS (-3) Green Bay (52½) 7:35 PM
The Packers had a great game plan last week and finally were able to
run the ball. Green Bay has five losses but all came against teams that
are .500 or better. The Saints have not won consecutive games all
season long but this will be the first home since mid-October for New
Orleans. The Saints have not had success in the home favorite role
Green Bay ’s defense continues to make big plays. A lot of points could
be scored here and the dog makes sense. PACKERS BY 4

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RAS Sides

NCAAB:
Alabama -3
Idaho +10

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Big Al

MNF GOM……….Saints

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Break your Bookie

Game of the Year !
There is no doubt in our mind about this game. We are so confident that we are risking 3 losses. If we win it counts as three 10 star plays and a loss vice versa. Absolutely pound the Saints.

GAME OF THE YEAR

NFL

10 Stars
SAINTS -1

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VEGAS EXPERTS

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Bobcats
Monday, November 24th, 7:05 PM ET

Charlotte checks into tonight’s game off a straight-up 5-point home loss to Milwaukee, while the Sixers won their previous game — 89-81 at home over Golden State. But this is Charlotte’s best pointspread role: at home off a straight-up loss vs. an opponent off a straight-up win. In this situation, the Bobcats are a solid 35-20 ATS (64%) since entering the league. Look for Larry Brown’s men to pull the minor upset tonight. Take the home dog Bobcats. Good luck - Al McM0rdi